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Metadata: 2023, Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) UK EEZ climate change hotspots/refugia shapefiles
Abstract:
These shapefiles show the locations of climate change hotspots and climate change refugia in the UK EEZ, as identified from spatial meta-analysis conducted as part of the Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) program. Analysis was run on selected climate modelling and/or species distribution model outputs relevant to three sectors of interest (conservation, fisheries and aquaculture). We compared a present day reference period (2006-2025) to each possible 20 year time period between 2026 and 2069 (e.g. 2026-2045, 2027-2046, 2028-2047 etc.) under two different GHG emissions scenarios â?? RCP4.5 (strong curbs in global emissions toward climate change mitigation, from 2050 onwards, leading to a mean global warming by the end of the century of approx 2.4 degrees Celsius) and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, leading to mean global warming approx 4.3 degrees Celsius). In this way, we were able to determine whether or not the marine environment, as described by the modelling layers included in the analysis, changes significantly between the reference period and the future period of interest. The analysis method identifies ecosystem-wide climate change signals, allowing the investigation of the effects of climate change as a holistic process that species respond to through changes in species distributions, affecting the activity of sectors that rely on them. This allows for a mapping of the emergence of climate change hotspots (areas where climate driven trends lead these ecosystem components into a new state beyond their natural variability) over space and time, and so indicating areas where the current level of activity of sectors reliant on those species and habitats may no longer be sustainable. Importantly, because planners need to know also about what can be done, not just what will be lost, this methodology also allows the identification of climate change refugia, where the ecosystem underpinning a sector remains in its current state, and thus where current uses may be sustainable. Specific analyses were conducted for each focal sector, and each shapefile corresponds to the results of one of these analyses. In the conservation sector, analyses focused on: pelagic habitats, benthic habitats, megafauna exploiting pelagic habitats, megafauna exploiting benthic habitats and climate services (e.g. carbon sequestration ability of benthic habitats). In the fisheries sector, analyses focused on: pelagic fisheries and benthic/demersal fisheries. In the aquaculture sector, analyses focused on: pelagic aquaculture (activities taking place in the water column such as salmon cages and suspended mussel culture) and benthic aquaculture (activities that take place on the seabed such as oyster trestles).
Data holder:
Data Archive for Marine Species and Habitats
| Other details | ||
| Internal code | Internally assigned metadata identifier | 11256 |
| Title | The title is used to provide a brief and precise description of the dataset such as 'Date', 'Originating organisation/programme', 'Location' and 'Type of survey'. All acronyms and abbreviations should be reproduced in full. | 2023, Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) UK EEZ climate change hotspots/refugia shapefiles |
| File Identifier | The File Identifier is a code, preferably a GUID, that is globally unique and remains with the same metadata record even if the record is edited or transferred between portals or tools. | 10d9ed3c367f5dd1c413b6e1779c24ca |
| Resource Identifier | This is the code assigned by the data owner. | DASSHDT00000524 |
| Resource type | The resource type will likely be a dataset but could also be a series (collection of datasets with a common specification) or a service. | dataset |
| Start date | This describes the date the resource starts. This may only be the year if month and day are not known | 2006-07-01 |
| End date | This describes the date the resource ends. This may only be the year if month and day are not known | 2069-12-31 |
| Spatial resolution | This describes the spatial resolution of the dataset or the spatial limitations of the service. | inapplicable |
| Frequency of updates | This describes the frequency with which the resource is modified or updated i.e. a monitoring programme that samples once per year has a frequency that is described as 'annually'. | notPlanned |
| Abstract | The abstract provides a clear and brief statement of the content of the resource. | These shapefiles show the locations of climate change hotspots and climate change refugia in the UK EEZ, as identified from spatial meta-analysis conducted as part of the Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) program. Analysis was run on selected climate modelling and/or species distribution model outputs relevant to three sectors of interest (conservation, fisheries and aquaculture). We compared a present day reference period (2006-2025) to each possible 20 year time period between 2026 and 2069 (e.g. 2026-2045, 2027-2046, 2028-2047 etc.) under two different GHG emissions scenarios â?? RCP4.5 (strong curbs in global emissions toward climate change mitigation, from 2050 onwards, leading to a mean global warming by the end of the century of approx 2.4 degrees Celsius) and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, leading to mean global warming approx 4.3 degrees Celsius). In this way, we were able to determine whether or not the marine environment, as described by the modelling layers included in the analysis, changes significantly between the reference period and the future period of interest. The analysis method identifies ecosystem-wide climate change signals, allowing the investigation of the effects of climate change as a holistic process that species respond to through changes in species distributions, affecting the activity of sectors that rely on them. This allows for a mapping of the emergence of climate change hotspots (areas where climate driven trends lead these ecosystem components into a new state beyond their natural variability) over space and time, and so indicating areas where the current level of activity of sectors reliant on those species and habitats may no longer be sustainable. Importantly, because planners need to know also about what can be done, not just what will be lost, this methodology also allows the identification of climate change refugia, where the ecosystem underpinning a sector remains in its current state, and thus where current uses may be sustainable. Specific analyses were conducted for each focal sector, and each shapefile corresponds to the results of one of these analyses. In the conservation sector, analyses focused on: pelagic habitats, benthic habitats, megafauna exploiting pelagic habitats, megafauna exploiting benthic habitats and climate services (e.g. carbon sequestration ability of benthic habitats). In the fisheries sector, analyses focused on: pelagic fisheries and benthic/demersal fisheries. In the aquaculture sector, analyses focused on: pelagic aquaculture (activities taking place in the water column such as salmon cages and suspended mussel culture) and benthic aquaculture (activities that take place on the seabed such as oyster trestles). |
| Lineage | Lineage includes the background information, history of the sources of data, data quality statements and methods. | Source text files used in the generation of each shapefile are included in the dataset. These text files represent the results of a spatial meta-analysis run on selected climate modelling and/or species distribution model outputs relevant to three sectors of interest (conservation, fisheries and aquaculture). We compared a present day reference period (2006-2025) to each possible 20 year time period between 2026 and 2069 (e.g. 2026-2045, 2027-2046, 2028-2047 etc.) under two different GHG emissions scenarios â?? RCP4.5 (strong curbs in global emissions toward climate change mitigation, from 2050 onwards, leading to a mean global warming by the end of the century of approx 2.4 degrees Celsius) and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, leading to mean global warming approx 4.3 degrees Celsius). The text files contain the lat/lon coordinates of the model domain, and values of â??1 (indicating a climate change hotspot), 0 (indicating climate change refugia), or 1 (indicating a climate change bright spot. NB no shapefiles of climate change brightspots were produced as they did not appear consistently across the time periods and emissions scenarios analysed). Co-ordinates of landmasses or areas outside the model domain have a value of NA. To create the shapefiles, the data for each sectoral analysis (pelagic habitats; benthic habitats; megafauna exploiting pelagic habitats; megafauna exploiting benthic habitats; climate services (e.g. carbon sequestration ability of benthic habitats); pelagic fisheries; benthic/demersal fisheries; pelagic aquaculture and benthic aquaculture), for all 20 year time periods between 2026-2069 and both emissions scenarios were plotted (25 plots for each RCP, so 50 plots in total) and stacked together using the magick package in R. Areas consistently identified as refugia (a site that remains climate-resilient within a given period of analysis) or hotspots (a site where climate pressures drive an ecosystem into a new ecosystem state, beyond its natural variability) in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were marked using the draw function in the terra package. The resulting polygons were stored as shapefiles, which summarise the location of climate refugia and climate change hotspots in the UK EEZ up to 2069, across both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The meta-analysis itself used physical biogeochemical modelling data from the POLCOMS-ERSEM model, and species distribution modelling generated by the Size-Spectrum Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (SS-DBEM). Modelling data were originally produced as part of the H2020 program CERES (data are in-line with modelling used within the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the FP7 program DEVOTES (scenarios consistent with the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). CERES modelling data are all publicly available. DEVOTES modelling data are available on request from Jose Fernandes (AZTI). |
| Related keywords | ||
| Keyword | General subject area(s) associated with the resource, uses multiple controlled vocabularies | Marine Environmental Data and Information Network |
| General subject area(s) associated with the resource, uses multiple controlled vocabularies | NDGO0005 | |
| Keyword title | data.gov.uk | |
| Keyword | General subject area(s) associated with the resource, uses multiple controlled vocabularies | Geographical grid systems |
| General subject area(s) associated with the resource, uses multiple controlled vocabularies | Horizontal spatial co-ordinates | |
| General subject area(s) associated with the resource, uses multiple controlled vocabularies | Bathymetry and Elevation | |
| Geographical coverage | ||
| North | The northern-most limit of the data resource in decimal degrees | 62.9 |
| East | The eastern-most limit of the data resource in decimal degrees | 4.954 |
| South | The southern-most limit of the data resource in decimal degrees | 47.03 |
| West | The western-most limit of the data resource in decimal degrees | -16.907 |
| Regional sea | Atlantic North-West Approaches and Rockall Trough | |
| Eastern Channel | ||
| Irish Sea | ||
| Minches and Western Scotland | ||
| Northern North Sea | ||
| Scottish Continental Shelf | ||
| Southern North Sea | ||
| Western Channel and Celtic Sea | ||
| Responsible organisations | ||
| Role | The point of contact is person or organisation with responsibility for the creation and maintenance of the metadata for the resource. | pointOfContact |
| Organisation name | Plymouth Marine Laboratory | |
| Individual name | Ana Queiros | |
| anqu@pml.ac.uk | ||
| Role | The owner is the person or organisation that owns the resource. | owner |
| Organisation name | Plymouth Marine Laboratory | |
| Individual name | Liz Talbot | |
| sat@pml.ac.uk | ||
| Role | The custodian is the person or organisation that accepts responsibility for the resource and ensures appropriate care and maintenance. If a dataset has been lodged with a Data Archive Centre for maintenance then this organisation is be entered here. | custodian |
| Organisation name | Data Archive for Marine Species and Habitats | |
| Individual name | Data Archive for Marine Species and Habitats (DASSH) | |
| Position name | Data Manager | |
| Phone | 01752 633291 | |
| dassh.enquiries@mba.ac.uk | ||
| Role | The originator is the person or organisation who created, collected or produced the resource. | originator |
| Organisation name | Plymouth Marine Laboratory | |
| Individual name | Liz Talbot | |
| sat@pml.ac.uk | ||
| Role | The distributor is the person or organisation that distributes the resource. | distributor |
| Organisation name | Data Archive for Marine Species and Habitats | |
| Individual name | Data Archive for Marine Species and Habitats (DASSH) | |
| Position name | Data Manager | |
| Phone | 01752 633291 | |
| dassh.enquiries@mba.ac.uk | ||
| Resource locators | ||
| Locator URL | Web address (URL) that links to the resource | https://doi.org/10.17031/64e8b1409baf0.1 |
| Locator name | Name of the web resource | DOI link |
| Dataset constraints | ||
| 20.1 Limitations on Public Access - Access constraints | This states `otherRestrictions` from ISO vocabulary RestrictionCode and is an INSPIRE/GEMINI requirement. | otherRestrictions |
| 20.2 Limitations on Public Access - Other constraints | This states any limitations on access to the data. Multiple occurences are allowed here. One entry shall be from the INSPIRE Metadata registry and the other free text should be part of the resource `Have specific limitations`. | Open access: CC BY |
| 21.1 Conditions for Access and Use - Use constraints | This states `otherRestrictions` from ISO vocabulary RestrictionCode and is an INSPIRE/GEMINI requirement. | otherRestrictions |
| 21.2 Conditions for Access and Use - Other constraints | This states any constraints on use of the data. Multiple conditions can be recorded for different parts of the data resource. If no conditions apply, then `No condtions apply` is recorded. This uses free text. | Open Access |
| Available data formats | ||
| Data format | Format in which digital data can be provided for transfer | Geographic Information System |
| Version info | ||
| Date of publication | The publication date of the resource or if previously unpublished the date that the resource was made publicly available via the MEDIN network. | 2023-10-02 |
| Date of last revision | The most recent date that the resource was revised. | 2023-10-02 |
| Harvest date | The date which this record has been (re)harvested from the provider. | 2026-04-12 |
| Metadata date | The date when the content of this metadata record was last updated. | 2025-04-07 |
| Metadata standard name | The name of the metadata standard used to create this metadata | MEDIN |
| Metadata standard version | The version of the MEDIN Discovery Metadata Standard used to create the metadata record | 3.1.2 |