CEFAS0eefdf21-91c7-40a3-b12d-5342234d34f4 English dataset Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk pointOfContact 2024-07-24T11:46:30 EPSG Geodetic Parameter Registry 2022-01-07 revision WGS 84 Modelled projections of habitat for commercial fish around North-western Europe under climate change, 2020 to 2060 2023-06-07 publication 2024-07-24 revision 2023-06-06 creation CEFAS21677 https://data.cefas.co.uk Environmental Niche Model (ENM) outputs for 49 commercial fish species under climate change until the decade of 2060 around northwestern Europe. A model ensemble of 5 ENMs was used (MaxEnt, Generalised Linear Models, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and BIOCLIM ), and projections were made under three different emission scenarios: A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The data shows model agreement (normalised to 1) for presence/absence decadal projections from 2020 to 2060. Additionally we provide data on model performance, with the Area Under the Curve (AUC) scores of the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve for each of the 5 ENMs trained for each combination of fish species and emission scenario. Only ENMs with an AUC score of at least 0.7 were considered. Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk originator Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk custodian Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk distributor Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) defra.helpline@defra.gov.uk owner notPlanned Habitat Fish Fisheries SeaDataNet P03 parameter discovery vocabulary 2011-03-25 revision Model Modelling Climate GEMET, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication Habitats and biotopes GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication Inapplicable SeaVoX Vertical Co-ordinate Coverages 2010-05-18 revision Marine Environmental Data and Information Network MEDIN metadata record availability 2012-01-11 publication data.gov.uk MEDIN metadata record availability 2012-01-11 publication otherRestrictions noLimitations otherRestrictions **Publicly available data licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 (`https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/)`_ – Please note the applicable attribution statement is as follows: ‘includes Crown copyright, Cefas [2023]'** .. _`https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/)`: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/ English environment 1.73881 1.74086 52.4581 52.4595 2011 2070 Binary Unknown https://data.cefas.co.uk/view/21677 Cefas Data Portal download The Cefas Data Portal contains metadata records and data sets available to download and connect to in support of our commitment to open science. Data is available in the following formats: Binary download. dataset INSPIRE Data Specification on Habitats and Biotopes – Technical Guidelines 2013-12-10 publication false See the referenced specification Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services 2010-12-08 publication true See the referenced specification The data is based on the output of an ensemble of 5 Environmental Niche Modeling techniques: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Generalised Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest and BIOCLIM. Each model was trained to capture the environmental requirements of individual fish species, using the 20 year-average in the period 1997-2016 of the environmental variables: near-bed sea temperature, sea surface temperature, near-bed salinity, sea surface salinity, the difference in near-bed and surface salinity and temperature (an approximation of stratification), and depth. Once the models were trained, they were used to study future habitat suitability for the 49 commercially-important fish species in 20-year averages centered in 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060. To produce maps of the suitable habitat, the model projections were converted to binary presence/absence data using the thresholds that optimized the True Skill Statistics (TSS) of each model. The data shows the model agreement, normalised to 1 ("1" denotes all ENMs agree an area is suitable, "0" denotes all ENMs agree an area is not suitable). The number of ENMs considered for each combination of fish species and emission scenario depends on model performance. A ENM model was considered if its Area Under the Curve (AUC) score of the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve was at least 0.7. Model performance is listed in the file "Model_performance_AUC.xlsx". Model input data: Climate change projection data from Met Office and Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) and species presence and abundance records from online databases (Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS), Global Biodiversity Information System (GBIF) and Marine Scotland (Moriarty, M., Greenstreet, S.P.R. and Rasmussen, J. (2017) Derivation of Groundfish Survey Monitoring and Assessment Data Product for the Northeast Atlantic Area. Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science, 8, 240pp. `DOI: 10.7489/1984-1`_). Models were trained using the R and Maxent softwares. Study region: northeast Atlantic shelf. Latitudes between -17° and 9.25°; longitudes between 44° and 65°. These datasets were produced for the study in the article "Climate change projections of commercial fish distribution and suitable habitat around northwestern Europe", by Bryony L. Townhill, Elena Couce, Jonathan Tinker, Susan Kay, John K. Pinnegar, in *Fish and Fisheries* (2023; `http://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12773`_). .. _`doi: 10.7489/1984-1`: https://data.marine.gov.scot/dataset/derivation-groundfish-survey-monitoring-and-assessment-data-product-northeast-atlantic-area .. _`http://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12773`: http://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12773 MEDIN 3.1.1