CEFAS41ebe93d-03a9-4cf2-960f-6d595c080a70 English dataset Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk pointOfContact 2025-06-19T10:22:38 EPSG Geodetic Parameter Registry 2022-01-07 revision WGS 84 Species distribution model agreement data for 19 vulnerable marine species under future climate change scenarios in northwest Europe from 2020 to 2100 2025-05-20 publication 2025-06-19 revision 2025-05-12 creation CEFAS22202 https://data.cefas.co.uk Model agreement data for Environmental Niche Model (ENM) outputs for 19 vulnerable species under climate change until end of century around northwestern Europe. A model ensemble of 5 ENMs was used (MaxEnt, Generalised Linear Models, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees), and projections were made under two different emission scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The data shows model agreement (normalised to 1) for presence/absence decadal projections from 2020 to 2100. Only ENMs with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) score of at least 0.7 were considered. Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk originator Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk custodian Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory (CEFAS) Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road Lowestoft Suffolk NR33 0HT UK data.manager@cefas.co.uk distributor Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) defra.helpline@defra.gov.uk owner notPlanned Climate Species Biodiversity GEMET, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication Species distribution Habitats and biotopes GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication Unknown SeaVoX Vertical Co-ordinate Coverages 2010-05-18 revision Marine Environmental Data and Information Network MEDIN metadata record availability 2012-01-11 publication data.gov.uk MEDIN metadata record availability 2012-01-11 publication otherRestrictions noLimitations otherRestrictions Publicly available data licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 ( `https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/`_ ) – Please note the applicable attribution statement is as follows: ‘includes Crown copyright, Cefas 2025' .. _`https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/`: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/ English biota environment -25.00 8.00 40.00 65.00 2005-01-01 2100-12-31 Binary Delimited Unknown https://data.cefas.co.uk/view/22202 Cefas Data Portal download The Cefas Data Portal contains metadata records and data sets available to download and connect to in support of our commitment to open science. Data is available in the following formats: Binary download, CSV. dataset INSPIRE Data Specification on Species Distribution – Technical Guidelines 2013-12-10 publication false See the referenced specification INSPIRE Data Specification on Habitats and Biotopes – Technical Guidelines 2013-12-10 publication false See the referenced specification Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services 2010-12-08 publication true See the referenced specification The data is based on the output of an ensemble of 5 Environmental Niche Modeling techniques: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Generalised Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Each model was trained to capture the environmental requirements of individual species, using the 10 year-average in the period 2005-2014 of the environmental variables: near-bed and sea surface temperature, near-bed and sea surface salinity, and their differences, sea surface chlorophyll concentrations, water depth and substrate properties. Once the models were trained, they were used to study future habitat suitability for the 19 vulnerable marine species selected for this piece of work, in 10-year averages to the end of century. To produce maps of the suitable habitat, the model projections were converted to binary presence/absence data using the thresholds that optimized the True Skill Statistics (TSS) of each model. The data shows the model agreement, normalised to 1 ("1" denotes all ENMs agree an area is suitable, "0" denotes all ENMs agree an area is not suitable). The number of ENMs considered for each combination of species and emission scenario depends on model performance. A ENM model was considered if its Area Under the Curve (AUC) score of the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve was at least 0.7. Model performance is listed in the file "Model performance.csv". Model input data: Climate change projection data from Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) (as referenced in Marine Biology paper). Species presence records from online databases (Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS), Global Biodiversity Information System (GBIF) (references provided in associated Marine Biology paper and model_input_data_read_me), and from additional data sources as described in the Marine Biology paper and model_input_data_read_me. Models were trained using the R software. Study region: northeast Atlantic shelf. Latitudes between -17° and 9.25°; longitudes between 44° and 65°. These datasets were produced for the study in the article "Climate change resilience of vulnerable marine species in northwest Europe" in Marine Biology. MEDIN 3.1.1