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            <gco:CharacterString>2007, COWRIE, Potential use of population viability analysis to assess the impact of offshore windfarms on bird populations</gco:CharacterString>
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        <gco:CharacterString>Although conventional impact assessments allow estimates of the number of birds that might collide with or be displaced by windfarms, such methods do not allow the overall effect on bird populations to be established. This report determines whether sufficient demographic information is available to carry out population viability analysis: one method of determining the impacts of offshore windfarms on bird
populations.  For most species likely to be affected by offshore windfarms, sufficient demographic data exist to carry out population viability analyses. There is good information on adult survival for all species with the exception of little tern and little gull. Similarly, for all species except little gull, there is good information on productivity. Reasonable data on age-dependent survival and productivity and on the proportion of non-breeders and intercolony movements are available for about half of the species assessed.</gco:CharacterString>
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            <gco:CharacterString>Population viability analysis (PVA) is a species-specific process used to identifying
the process that determines the probability that a population will go extinct within
a given number of years (Shaffer, 1983; 1987; Boyce 1992) and is thus used to
identify the most important threats facing a particular species population. It
differs from conventional population modelling in that it takes into account
stochastic events, i.e. random changes in demographic rates such as survival or
productivity. As such, it is the variability in demographic parameters that is as
important as mean values and the greater the variability, the more prone a
population is to extinction all other things being equal. Population viability
analysis is often oriented towards the conservation and management of rare and
threatened species, with the goal of applying the principles of population ecology
to improve their chances of survival. Threatened species management has two
broad objectives. The short-term objective is to minimize the risk of extinction.
The longer-term objective is to promote conditions in which species retain their
potential for evolutionary change without intensive management. PVAs are often
used to reveal the sensitivity of populations to particular demographic parameters
so that the most important impacts on extinction probabilities can be determined.
Extrinsic forces, such as habitat loss, over-harvesting, and competition or
predation by introduced species, often lead to population decline. Although the
traditional methods of wildlife ecology can reveal such deterministic trends,
random fluctuations that increase as populations become smaller can lead to
extinction even of populations that have, on average, positive population growth
when below carrying capacity and mechanisms that incorporate intrinsic factors
are needed if extinction risks are to be determined (Lacy 1993).</gco:CharacterString>
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